The latest report from the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) Steel Logistics Professional Committee reveals that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China’s steel industry fell to 47.5% in December 2024, a decline of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month. This marks a return to contraction after two months of growth, reflecting the sector entering its traditional off-season as temperatures drop.
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As winter set in during December, the impact on steel demand became increasingly evident. Temperatures across much of the country dropped further, with many regions falling below freezing, which directly limited outdoor construction activities. Although the winter storage season approached, the increase in demand for storing steel was insufficient to offset the seasonal decline. Despite relaxed policies in the Chinese real estate market, sales of new homes remained lackluster, and the number of new projects did not significantly pick up. Consequently, the real estate sector provided limited support for steel demand. Overall, Chinese steel demandweakened, leading to a cautious market sentiment. The new orders index for the steel industry stood at 48.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a retreat after two consecutive months of growth.
Meanwhile, production activities at steel mills also slowed in December. Reduced steel demand and accumulated inventories dampened production enthusiasm. Additionally, the onset of the heating season in northern regions, coupled with strengthened environmental protection measures, imposed extra constraints on steel producers’ output capabilities. The production index recorded 48.3%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the prior month, marking the first time it entered the contraction zone after three months above 53%.
Looking ahead, the CFLP Steel Logistics Professional Committee forecasts that both supply and demand will continue to face contraction pressures in January 2025. Raw material prices are expected to remain low, while steel prices may experience slight fluctuations. Given the traditional off-season and the influence of macroeconomic conditions, a short-term recovery in steel demand seems unlikely. Market participants should closely monitor policy directions and changes in economic indicators to adjust their business strategies accordingly.