In November 2024, China's steel exports showed a trend of month-on-month decline but maintained year-on-year growth. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 9.278 million metric tons of steel in November, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. However, this growth rate was 24.9 percentage points lower than the previous month.
Image source: Photo Network
Notably, while steel exports grew compared to the same period last year, they decreased by 190.2 thousand metric tons or 17.0% from October. Imports also saw a month-on-month drop of 12.4%, remaining at a low level. As a result, China continued to maintain a net export position for the month. Data shows that in November, net steel exports were 8.805 million metric tons, up 19.1% year-on-year, with the growth rate slowing down by 27.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Up until November, the total annual net export volume reached 94.958 million metric tons, growing 25.5% year-on-year, albeit with a slight deceleration of 0.6 percentage points from the prior month.
Currently, Chinese steel exports still benefit from competitive pricing. Overseas steel supply has been consistently decreasing, and global manufacturing indices have started to recover steadily, leading to a gradual improvement in external demand. Moreover, the export order index for Chinese steel companies has returned to an expansionary range, and the depreciation of the renminbi (RMB) has further boosted the competitiveness of steel exports. However, trade frictions and preliminary rulings could pose obstacles to future steel exports.
Given the lower base from last year, it is expected that China's steel exports will continue to grow year-on-year in December, potentially reaching close to 110 million metric tons for the full year. Historically, the peak year for China’s steel exports was 2015, when 112.39 million metric tons were exported; 2016 followed closely behind with 108.49 million metric tons. Therefore, the 2024 export volume is anticipated to surpass that of 2016 but remain slightly below the record set in 2015, placing it at the second-highest historical level.
In summary, despite favorable conditions such as price advantages, recovering market demand, and currency factors, uncertainties in the trade environment present challenges for steel exports. Breaking the historical highest record in 2024 will not be easy. To address these challenges, the industry must closely monitor international market dynamics, adjust strategies accordingly, and ensure stable development of steel exports.